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The DSWV said the findings should prompt a thorough reassessment of official black market size estimates in Germany.

The DOCV, another trade body representing licensed online casino operators in Germany, also expressed support for the prosecutorial efforts. However, it emphasised that the raid exposed regulatory gaps which had allowed organised crime to flourish.

Kevin O’Neal, a DOCV board member, argued the scale of the investigation calls the GGL’s broader black market estimates into question. He cited the regulator’s 2025 activity report, which put the 2024 share at 23% (€547 million in gross gaming revenue), against Nielsen data suggesting a share of around 56%.

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“A lot of market makers want to go where there’s liquidity,” he said, adding that platform stability and Kalshi’s investment in the financial side of its market-maker relationships were also important. “I think Kalshi is a freight train that’s just kind of running away with it.”

Aldrin monitors product changes, advertising, social media activity, app-store rankings and trading volume across prediction market operators. Patel said the objective is to connect those indicators and show how a product launch supported by advertising affects volume and market share.

Below the largest exchanges, he sees numerous operators competing for relatively small shares of a fast-growing category. “If you get 1% of this market, I think it’s a huge opportunity,” Patel said. “There are a lot of people fighting to get 1%.”

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It has addressed ongoing questions faced by operators regarding when it is reasonable to close accounts, withhold or return player balances, cancel bets, or redistribute tournament prizes deemed fraudulently obtained. 

Notably, it has also provided insight into the evidentiary standards French courts expect operators to meet before taking corrective actions that could be subject to legal challenge.

The regulator identified six key categories of fraud frequently encountered in online gambling. These included identity fraud, payment fraud and abusive chargebacks. It also covered in-game cheating, money-dumping and sporting event manipulation