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“People will lose money faster on exchanges for lots of reasons,” Marantelli says. “It inherently increases spend, volatility, lots of things. And you’re playing against a sharper audience than you’re playing against at the DraftKings sportsbook.”
He compares the effect with sportsbook cash-out features, which gave customers more apparent control over their bets but may also have encouraged greater spending. The crucial difference is that an exchange customer can be facing a specialist whose entire business is identifying inaccurately priced contracts.
Kendrick sees a warning in the history of betting exchanges. In their early growth phase, there was sufficient retail liquidity for numerous market makers to profit. As that retail pool weakened, the sharper firms increasingly found themselves trading against one another.
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Angelozzi was asked about previous cross-border M&A that had failed to deliver on initial expectations and why he felt this time was different.
He said Cirsa wass already a well-managed company and in previous deals, it had tried to make too many changes to an asset. “First of all, in many cases you had M&A which was of assets that were second tier. The promise was to completely change the nature and the competitive position of the asset, in many cases, a turnaround.
“In this case, it’s a completely different situation. You have a group, not a single company in a single country, a group which has been a solid group for 10 years and delivering. There’s no turnaround to be made. It’s already very well managed. It’s number one in its markets.”
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A major advantage for traditional sportsbook operators is their ability to aggressively fund customer acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG points out, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because users trade against one another rather than against the house.
That creates a stark contrast during peak football season when traditional sportsbooks spend heavily on promotions. Offers ranging from $350 to $365 from major operators make the $25 to $50 promotional matches typically seen on prediction markets appear modest by comparison.
“That said, channel checks indicate prediction markets are spending heavily on digital marketing, including app stores and pay-per-click advertising, which could make our forecast look conservative by the end of the season,” EKG concluded.