40 Mystic Gem

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“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”

Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

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Atucha warns that regulations are often perceived as operator-friendly at the start before governments begin looking to squeeze licensed sectors, likening the process to “boiling a frog”. He has observed similar scenarios in other LatAm markets, with tax increases occurring in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico in the last couple of years.

Rossi believes the ISC in Peru is an example of a government implementing new taxes without truly understanding how the industry works, and the potential impacts on channelisation to licensed offerings.

“Peru has been quite successful in channelling customers into the regulated framework,” Rossi comments. “The risk is that this channelisation can decrease in favour of the black market. We know the black market won’t have any consumption tax.

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Various MPs voiced concerns about the risk of privacy violations in accessing this data, and the potential social stigma around the information being shared.

Christofidou also floated the idea of issuing GMI recipients with a special card for in-person verification at gambling venues, but several MPs warned this could stigmatise welfare recipients.

Current gambling legislation restricts participation for minors and those classified as “financially vulnerable”. However, GMI recipients are not yet formally classified as such for the purpose of these regulations.