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In any event, successive regulatory tightening and tax increases have already created a “reasonably effective deterrent” to market entry.

There is a second complication. The relentless flow of Commission statements may eventually make enforcement less damaging rather than more.

“The regulatory failures are unhelpful but perhaps the sheer number and regularity of them has made them less remarkable, such that they become ‘wallpaper’,” Waugh says.

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Van Dijk also voiced his opinion that all gambling advertising should be banned, including for lotteries and land-based casinos.

He also questioned the government’s involvement with the state-owned entities Holland Casino and Nederlandse Loterij, especially in its assessment on how to limit gambling harms.

Holland Casino CEO Petra de Ruiter last week told iGB that she was proud of the player protection efforts in place across Holland Casino’s products.

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Prediction markets have proven effective at attracting sharp bettors and high-rollers who are often limited or banned by traditional sportsbooks. However, consumer surveys indicate that when given the choice between a sportsbook and a yes/no exchange, most recreational bettors still prefer the traditional sportsbook interface. That dynamic helps explain why prediction markets remain in second place.

“Prediction markets represent a meaningful second channel for NFL wagering but still small on a relative scale, reflecting a new sector with less of an installed base,” observes EKG.

It’s widely believed that all-or-nothing exchanges are carving out significant niches in states, such as California and Texas, where sports betting is prohibited, but there’s also emerging consensus that the prediction market threat to sportsbooks is easing.